Baseball91's Weblog

May 28, 2009


The National Association for Business Economics released a report Wednesday that more than 90 percent of economists predict the recession will end this year, although the recovery is likely to be bumpy.

That assessment is in line generally with the Federal Reserve Chairman outlook of Ben Bernanke. About seventy-four percent of the forecasters expect the recession — which started in December 2007— to end in the third quarter. Nineteen percent predict the turning point will come in the final three months of this year. The remaining seven percent believe the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010.

This National Association for Business Economics report followed a report on October 6, 2008 that 31% of economists did not think there was a recession. So 10% of the economists did not see an end to the recessions, with 31% of economists proven to be out of touch with the current world.

Has anyone checked the market in commercial real estate? When there was too much credit in the system, something had to give.

I wrote on October 6, 2008 that there was going to be another at least 25% to 30% correction in the valuations of homes. Real estate prices had fallen 23.3% in Minneapolis-St. Paul in the last 12 months. So there were signs that an honest correction had occurred at least in single family homes.


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