Baseball91's Weblog

May 22, 2009

A Nation’s Capital



Deflation overseas continued to be in the news. The news from the UK was that in the 4th quarter of 2008, the economy had contracted 1.6%. Office for National Statistics yesterday announced that GDP in the UK fell 1.9% in the 1st quarter when compared with the prior quarter. This was the largest decline since the 3rd quarter of 1979. MarketWatch reported that year-on-year, GDP was down 4.1%, much larger than the 2% decline seen in the fourth quarter.

There then was a downgrade from Standard & Poor’s Corporation in the UK ratings outlook. Yet today MarketWatch is reporting that the dollar fell to the lowest level versus the Euro since December on Friday, as traders looked for alternatives to the U.S. dollar. It additionally was stated that fears about the global economy were abating. Whose analysis was that?

At the same time, the central bank of Japan upwardly had revised its economic view for the first time since July 2006, leaving the key interest rate unchanged at 0.1% and expanding the range of eligible collateral to ensure financial market stability.

Who trusted the Bank of Japan, based on their reported of real estate valuations in their portfolio over the last 10 to 15 years of their own crisis?

With worry that the debt level in the UK may result in its credit rating being cut, there was new concern about the massive U.S. deficit, with the falling US dollar notching fresh multi-month lows against the Euro, pound, and yen.

The battle was waging between forces of deflation in many countries on the continent overseas, with government in the United States and the United Kingdon promoting hyper-inflation. This was the same battle reflected in LIBOR rates on October 1, 2008.

No ratings agency has issued any new comments on the credit rating of the U.S.

How to protect capital in times of crisis? Is there a real alternative to the dollar?

The Euro reached a high against the dollar at $1.4008, its highest level since Jan. 2, 2009.

The pound recovered from the turbulence it suffered in the wake of the S&P announcement Thursday and set a new high for 2009 at $1.5937. Why?

Pension funds, insurers, and institutional investors, are pouring back currency flow into Great Britain, supporting the British pound and exchange traded fund (ETF). According to Boston-based State Street Global Markets LLC, in the 60 days to May 13, the money flows were 99% higher than any comparable period since 1997.
The depressed pound is actually a way to play distressed assets with potential for the upside, says Joe Weisenthal. The pound gathered strength today after the Bank of England voted to hold the key interest rate at a record low of 0.5%, says RTT News.


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