Baseball91's Weblog

January 21, 2009

Homeland Security


Former KGB analyst and Russian academic Igor Panarin recently predicted that the US will be engulfed in a civil war which will eventually lead to the fall of the country.   Panarin believes that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war in the United States as early as the autumn of 2009.


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There is no news how he feels about the social unrest in Russia over falling oil prices over the last 6 months.  Or over the economic turmoil in Europe.  Spain suffered a credit rating downgrade by Standard & Poor’s.  Last week the agency cut Greece‘s rating and has Portugal and Ireland under review.  “The move by S&P to cut its rating to “AA+” from “AAA,” a level Greece had held since late 2004, sent the euro to a session low against the dollar as investors feared other euro zone economies could suffer the same fate.” 


Speaking of the news from Greece over the past 30 days, with the ongoing downturn in economic news, there will be international repercussions to any true economic upheaval.  Look at how the Russians in January have tried to use their power over its neighbors on the flow of natural gas and the price of that natural gas.  Was that in response to the falling price of oil?   


From the Phoneix BizJournals:


December 17, 2008…..International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn warned Wednesday of economy-related riots and unrest in various global markets if the financial crisis is not addressed and lower-income households are hurt by credit constraints and rising unemployment. 


U.S. Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., and U.S. Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., both said U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson brought up a worst-case scenario as he pushed for the Wall Street bailout in September. Paulson, former Goldman Sachs CEO, said that might even require a declaration of martial law, the two noted.


Pointing to a 1994 U.S. Defense Department Directive (DODD 3025) he says allows military commanders to take emergency actions in domestic situations to save lives, prevent suffering or mitigate great property damage. 


In another December 2008 new story, in a report by the U S Army War College, Known Unknowns: Unconventional ‘Strategic Shocks’ in Defense Strategy Development,” Nathan Freier, a retired army lieutenant colonel who is a professor at the college, talks about the possibility of Pentagon resources and troops being used should the economic crisis lead to civil unrest, such as protests against businesses and government or runs on beleaguered banks.  “Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security,” said the report.  The study says economic collapse, terrorism and loss of legal order are among possible domestic shocks that might require military action within the U.S.  The 44-page document written by Freier, a professor at the college, is solely a reflection. But he argues that “unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters,” could be the potential aftermath of a sclerotic economy. The Clinton administration set up the Joint Task Force-Civil Support in October 1999 as a “homeland defense command.” In 2002 the Pentagon established the U.S. Northern Command, charged with carrying out military operations within the United States. Prior to this, under the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, the U.S. armed forces had been barred from domestic operations, except in specific, limited circumstances. Pentagon officials are now projecting some 20,000 active-duty U.S. troops to be stationed in the United States by 2011.


From Todd Harrison (Marketwatch):


“Our current course has ominous ramifications for the dollar. As the greenback is the world reserve currency, those implications extend throughout the global landscape. A currency holds a nation together and the economy — perhaps society at large — assumes more, not less, risk as a function of the path of our attempted fix. 


“Structural: As the equilibrium between asset classes remains elusive, the single greatest risk remains a seismic shift in currency markets. Therein lay perhaps the most profound path of maximum frustration, one that punishes the savers who proactively prepared for the current crisis.  While negative sentiment creates fertile ground for bear-market rallies, aggregate risk appetites contract and voluntary and involuntary thrift collide. This continues to manifest despite efforts by government officials to induce borrowing rather than allowing for the painful, yet necessary, debt destruction required for a more stable economic foundation.  Social mood and risk appetites will determine our financial fate and, by extension, the way we live our lives. That proved positive during the era of conspicuous consumption but is troublesome as we edge through the age of austerity.” 


1 Comment »

  1. “When I addressed the Linz conference, it was $2 trillion; now it’s $15 trillion, which means that it soared more than 7 times within 13 years. It’s a road to nowhere because the country will never be able to pay it off. Here’s an example. During the 6 years of Gorbachev’s rule, the Soviet Union’s foreign debt grew fivefold. Earlier, during World War I, the foreign debt of the Russian empire grew 5.5 times. This, among other reasons, was enough to prompt a collapse of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union.” – concerning information warfare which can cause panic, Igor Panarin on Oct 26, 2011

    from The Wall Street Journal

    In Moscow, Igor Panarin’s Forecasts Are All the Rage; America ‘Disintegrates’ in 2010

    As if Things Weren’t Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

    Updated Dec. 29, 2008

    MOSCOW — For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument – that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. – very seriously. Now he’s found an eager audience: the Russian state media.

    Igor Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. In recent weeks, he’s been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. “It’s a record,” says Prof. Panarin. “But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger.”

    Though Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans, he warns that the outlook for Americans is dire. “There is a fifty-five to forty-five percent chance right now that disintegration will occur,” he says. “One could rejoice in that process. But if we’re talking reasonably, it’s not the best scenario – for Russia.”

    Because Russia currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S., he says, its economy would suffer. But in the end, Russia would become more powerful on the global stage.
    Mr. Panarin posits that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces – with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

    Mr. Panarin’s resume includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB’s successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles, the double-headed eagle which had been the symbol of czarist Russia. The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are “classified.”

    On September 9, 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010. “In September 1998, I first voiced my hypothesis of the possible disintegration of the US into six parts in 2010, at a conference named “Information War” in the Austrian city of Linz. As I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise,” he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. “They didn’t believe me.”

    At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S. His bleak forecast for the U.S. is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis.

    A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Igor Panarin is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations. Mr. Panarin’s views also fit neatly with the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories. In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin’s ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country’s top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin’s English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.

    Mr. Panarin’s apocalyptic vision “reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today,” says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. “It’s much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union.”

    Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin’s predictions. “Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people,” says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin’s theories don’t hold water.

    Mr. Panarin based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

    California will form the nucleus of what he calls “The Californian Republic,” and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of “The Texas Republic,” a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an “Atlantic America” that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls “The Central North American Republic.” Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

    “It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time.” A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. “It’s not there for no reason,” he says with a sly grin.

    Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia’s biggest national dailies. Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama “can work miracles,” he wrote. “But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles.” His article reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt “a pyramid scheme,” and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington’s role as a global financial regulator.

    The article in Izvestia prompted a question about the White House’s reaction to Prof. Panarin’s forecast at a December news conference. To Mr. Panarin, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino’s response – “I’ll have to decline to comment,” Dana Perino – was significant. “The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully,” he says.

    The professor says he’s convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd who is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union – 15 years beforehand. “When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him,” says Prof. Panarin.

    The writer is Andrew Osborn at, with the copyright of The Wall Street Journal

    Comment by baseball91 — November 27, 2016 @ 12:41 PM | Reply

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