Corrections

The National Association for Business Economics released a report Wednesday that more than 90 percent of economists predict the recession will end this year, although the recovery is likely to be bumpy.

That assessment is in line generally with the Federal Reserve Chairman outlook of Ben Bernanke. About seventy-four percent of the forecasters expect the recession — which started in December 2007— to end in the third quarter. Nineteen percent predict the turning point will come in the final three months of this year. The remaining seven percent believe the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010.

This National Association for Business Economics report followed a report on October 6, 2008 that 31% of economists did not think there was a recession. So 10% of the economists did not see an end to the recessions, with 31% of economists proven to be out of touch with the current world.

Has anyone checked the market in commercial real estate? When there was too much credit in the system, something had to give.

I wrote on October 6, 2008 that there was going to be another at least 25% to 30% correction in the valuations of homes. Real estate prices had fallen 23.3% in Minneapolis-St. Paul in the last 12 months. So there were signs that an honest correction had occurred at least in single family homes.

A Nation’s Capital

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Markets.

Deflation overseas continued to be in the news. The news from the UK was that in the 4th quarter of 2008, the economy had contracted 1.6%. Office for National Statistics yesterday announced that GDP in the UK fell 1.9% in the 1st quarter when compared with the prior quarter. This was the largest decline since the 3rd quarter of 1979. MarketWatch reported that year-on-year, GDP was down 4.1%, much larger than the 2% decline seen in the fourth quarter.

There then was a downgrade from Standard & Poor’s Corporation in the UK ratings outlook. Yet today MarketWatch is reporting that the dollar fell to the lowest level versus the Euro since December on Friday, as traders looked for alternatives to the U.S. dollar. It additionally was stated that fears about the global economy were abating. Whose analysis was that?

At the same time, the central bank of Japan upwardly had revised its economic view for the first time since July 2006, leaving the key interest rate unchanged at 0.1% and expanding the range of eligible collateral to ensure financial market stability.

Who trusted the Bank of Japan, based on their reported of real estate valuations in their portfolio over the last 10 to 15 years of their own crisis?

With worry that the debt level in the UK may result in its credit rating being cut, there was new concern about the massive U.S. deficit, with the falling US dollar notching fresh multi-month lows against the Euro, pound, and yen.

The battle was waging between forces of deflation in many countries on the continent overseas, with government in the United States and the United Kingdon promoting hyper-inflation. This was the same battle reflected in LIBOR rates on October 1, 2008.

No ratings agency has issued any new comments on the credit rating of the U.S.

How to protect capital in times of crisis? Is there a real alternative to the dollar?

The Euro reached a high against the dollar at $1.4008, its highest level since Jan. 2, 2009.

The pound recovered from the turbulence it suffered in the wake of the S&P announcement Thursday and set a new high for 2009 at $1.5937. Why?

Pension funds, insurers, and institutional investors, are pouring back currency flow into Great Britain, supporting the British pound and exchange traded fund (ETF). According to Boston-based State Street Global Markets LLC, in the 60 days to May 13, the money flows were 99% higher than any comparable period since 1997.
The depressed pound is actually a way to play distressed assets with potential for the upside, says Joe Weisenthal. The pound gathered strength today after the Bank of England voted to hold the key interest rate at a record low of 0.5%, says RTT News.

Register of Deeds

“It’s always been there, but like any fad, it takes awhile to catch on,” she said. “In the last three months, I have gotten more phone calls from parents. Great parents from wonderful communities. This crosses all borders. I think parents are just freaked out.” This was some expert talking. Apparently she spoke to parents about it in her school district. About sexting.

“It’s always been there?” The New World Order. Oh those “Once upon a time” stories. Back in the 1990s. Those kids had grown up.

The 1990s. It was about 10,000 points of light. Those 10,000 points of light. Now with cell phones and genitalia.

As their parents have fumbled and stumbled along with them, the new young generation has grown up. This was the New World Order. Those 10,000 points of light in cell phones. With cameras. Who were the supplies of phones for these 13 year-old?

About that sexting. State legislatures were getting into the act. In the New World Order, these state legislatures stayed in sessions too long composing new laws in a world that they themselves don’t understand. In a misguided attempt at protecting the public health, unable or unwilling to address the fiscal matters of budgets, they were trying to establish laws about sexting. Soon everyone would be a registered sex offender, for acts committed at the age of 14.

If you had not heard, sexting is the art of sending graphic images and videos text. Yeah, it was an art form. During the days still of the declared War on Terror, when you were not looking, a New World Order had cropped up.

This state had entered a new era for registered sex offenders. And these sex offenders. were our kids. The registers would be filled with young kids. It was a new generation that did not trade baseball cards. Like sexting, without the bubblegum. There had to be a song in all of this. This public register of sex offenders was growing too big. It was politicians fumbling and stumbling, generally coming to grips with fear, trying to balance an office for the public register of deeds, without surveys and Platt maps, and without a Torrens system of registration of title to land.

Under the current law in Vermont, teens who text message explicit photos could be prosecuted as sex offenders. So the Vermont legislature currently had a proposed bill which would make sexting legal in Vermont for 18-years old and younger. It was a bit of a reversal of the logic used regarding the requirements for drinking. But composing new laws? This state had entered a new era for registered sex offenders. And these were our kids.

All this while take your daughter-to-work day quietly bit the dust. Out of some new fear? It used to be in April. I think the nation was afraid what would happen with sexting. It used to be legislatures passed some kind of budgets, before going home for the year. Legislation and legislators never quite worked the way it all was intended. In the Too Big To Fail era.

Father-daughter dance, mother- son breakfast, had been replaced by cell phones. For safety. For peace of mind.

In the Too Big To Fail generation, fumbling and stumbling in Vermont, parent turned legislator, not really knowing what to do. With sexting. State legislatures wanting more control over the world, but not knowing how.

“So what are you in for?”

“I was found guilty of possessing child porn. I will be registered as a sex offender for life, when I get out. When I get out, I will be 17.”

The Summer Driving Season

I am not a sabermatics guy. But….

In Europe, deflation was shown in the 16 nations of the European Union in the reduction of the economies in the the 4th quarter of 2008, down 1.4%. And now down 2.5 percent in the first quarter. Reuters had a piece that according to the French daily Les Echos, the French economy shrank 1.2 percent in the first quarter of 2009 as compared with the previous three months.

It ain’t over. Economics had a way of testing all relationships. Time will tell how the European Union is holding up. The question was not whether politics would turn ugly, but how.