Former KGB analyst and Russian academic Igor Panarin recently predicted that the US will be engulfed in a civil war which will eventually lead to the fall of the country. Panarin believes that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war in the United States as early as the autumn of 2009.
There is no news how he feels about the social unrest in Russia over falling oil prices over the last 6 months. Or over the economic turmoil in Europe. Spain suffered a credit rating downgrade by Standard & Poor’s. Last week the agency cut Greece’s rating and has Portugal and Ireland under review. “The move by S&P to cut its rating to “AA+” from “AAA,” a level Greece had held since late 2004, sent the euro to a session low against the dollar as investors feared other euro zone economies could suffer the same fate.”
Speaking of the news from Greece over the past 30 days, with the ongoing downturn in economic news, there will be international repercussions to any true economic upheaval. Look at how the Russians in January have tried to use their power over its neighbors on the flow of natural gas and the price of that natural gas. Was that in response to the falling price of oil?
From the Phoneix BizJournals:
December 17, 2008…..International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn warned Wednesday of economy-related riots and unrest in various global markets if the financial crisis is not addressed and lower-income households are hurt by credit constraints and rising unemployment.
U.S. Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., and U.S. Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., both said U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson brought up a worst-case scenario as he pushed for the Wall Street bailout in September. Paulson, former Goldman Sachs CEO, said that might even require a declaration of martial law, the two noted.
Pointing to a 1994 U.S. Defense Department Directive (DODD 3025) he says allows military commanders to take emergency actions in domestic situations to save lives, prevent suffering or mitigate great property damage.
In another December 2008 new story, in a report by the U S Army War College, Known Unknowns: Unconventional ‘Strategic Shocks’ in Defense Strategy Development,” Nathan Freier, a retired army lieutenant colonel who is a professor at the college, talks about the possibility of Pentagon resources and troops being used should the economic crisis lead to civil unrest, such as protests against businesses and government or runs on beleaguered banks. “Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security,” said the report. The study says economic collapse, terrorism and loss of legal order are among possible domestic shocks that might require military action within the U.S. The 44-page document written by Freier, a professor at the college, is solely a reflection. But he argues that “unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters,” could be the potential aftermath of a sclerotic economy. The Clinton administration set up the Joint Task Force-Civil Support in October 1999 as a “homeland defense command.” In 2002 the Pentagon established the U.S. Northern Command, charged with carrying out military operations within the United States. Prior to this, under the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, the U.S. armed forces had been barred from domestic operations, except in specific, limited circumstances. Pentagon officials are now projecting some 20,000 active-duty U.S. troops to be stationed in the United States by 2011.
From Todd Harrison (Marketwatch):
“Our current course has ominous ramifications for the dollar. As the greenback is the world reserve currency, those implications extend throughout the global landscape. A currency holds a nation together and the economy — perhaps society at large — assumes more, not less, risk as a function of the path of our attempted fix.
“Structural: As the equilibrium between asset classes remains elusive, the single greatest risk remains a seismic shift in currency markets. Therein lay perhaps the most profound path of maximum frustration, one that punishes the savers who proactively prepared for the current crisis. While negative sentiment creates fertile ground for bear-market rallies, aggregate risk appetites contract and voluntary and involuntary thrift collide. This continues to manifest despite efforts by government officials to induce borrowing rather than allowing for the painful, yet necessary, debt destruction required for a more stable economic foundation. Social mood and risk appetites will determine our financial fate and, by extension, the way we live our lives. That proved positive during the era of conspicuous consumption but is troublesome as we edge through the age of austerity.”
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